In many countries appeals to safeguard the nation have been followed by democratic backsliding. Nevertheless, the literature on democratic backsliding has not recognized ethno-nationalism as a separate explanatory variable of the phenomenon. Drawing on empirical evidence (including data from experimental surveys) from several countries that have recently experienced significant democratic backsliding (Poland, Serbia, Hungary, Turkey, and Israel), Filip Milačić introduces ethno-nationalism as a complementary explanation of democratic backsliding. Milačić demonstrates that political actors (entrepreneurs) have portrayed the nation and its identity as being under threat. Their successful creation of an out-group (a threat to the nation) has further increased the willingness of voters to tolerate undemocratic behavior for the sake of protecting the allegedly endangered in-group (the nation). Given that in spite of similar attacks the Serbian, Turkish, and Hungarian democracies have broken down, while the Polish and Israeli democracies have only eroded to democracy of a lower quality, the project offers insights on the conditions under which ethno-nationalism is less likely to prove fatal to democracy. Based on interviews conducted with involved politicians and civil activists, Milačić argues that successful resistance depends, firstly, on the ability of pro-democracy actors to recognize in time that democracy is under attack. This occurs when there is diffusion of information about how the subversion of democracy with ethno-nationalist appeals works and when pro-democracy actors are not receptive to ethno-nationalist appeals. Secondly, successful resistance also depends on the ability of pro-democracy actors to develop an effective national identity-related counter-narrative to the autocrat’s threat narrative.
Filip Milačić is senior researcher at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s (FES) Office ‘Democracy of the Future’, visiting professor at the Central European University (CEU), and research affiliate at CEU’s Democracy Institute. Previously, he worked for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). He also held visiting scholar positions at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) and MacMillan Center, Yale University. He contributed articles to Falter, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Aftonbladet, Euractiv, and Social Europe.
Ivan Vejvoda, IWM Permanent Fellow, will moderate the discussion.
