Russia's large-scale war against Ukraine has undermined its role as the regional hegemon in the post-Soviet region. Concentrating most of its military and economic resources in Ukraine, Russia's role as the dominant actor in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Eastern Europe is waning. Increasingly, Moscow has to negotiate its role not only with external actors like China, Iran, and Turkey but also with regional countries like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and to some extent Ukraine.
Russian leadership is finding it hard to persuade smaller countries to conform to its policy goals. It is forced to compromise on security, regional conflicts, trade, and transit. And it must cooperate with its post-Soviet neighbors to circumvent sanctions. This has strengthened their bargaining position towards Moscow. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the demographic, economic, and technological decline of Russia. It is unlikely that war in Ukraine will end soon since the Putin regime needs the war to distract from its internal weaknesses. Despite imperial ambitions, the main driver of current Russian politics is domestic legitimization through war and external enemies.
New regional orders are in making in regions where Russia is still a strong player but no longer the dominant one. These orders will be less stable, more transactional and the use of force more acceptable.
Stefan Meister is the Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. He previously led the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s South Caucasus Office, worked as a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), and was a visiting fellow at the Transatlantic Academy in Washington, DC. Meister is author and co-editor of Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region (Springer, 2024), The Russia File (Brookings, 2018), and The Eastern Question (Brookings, 2016). He holds a PhD from Friedrich Schiller University Jena.
IWM Rector Misha Glenny will moderate the discussion.
